The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | August 9 – 11, 2024
Week 32 | August 9 – 11, 2024
Top 10 3-Day Range | Weekend 32, 2024: $140M — $180M
1. Deadpool & Wolverine
Marvel Studios | Week 3
Weekend Range: $50 – $60M
The Boxoffice Company’s Showtimes Dashboard Marketshare: 21%
Pros
“Deadpool wept, seeing as he had no more multiverses to conquer.” After becoming the biggest R-rated title of all time and the biggest X-Men movie ever, Deadpool & Wolverine will continue to slash its way to box office glory as the $1 billion global take brass ring becomes a certainty. Rocking $421 million, the team-up movie is the 9th highest-grossing MCU movie domestically. It is a lock to pass Captain Marvel ($426.8) and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ($453.8M) before the weekend is out.
Cons
The next big obstacle in its way record-wise is 2012’s The Avengers, which at $623.3M might be a difficult milestone to pass as the third Deadpool continues to take -50%+ dips at each frame. Globally, Deadpool & Wolverine is the 12th biggest MCU movie at $879.2M and will overtake several films this weekend but will be nowhere near all-timer status for the brand. It will soon enough become the 11th MCU movie to make over $1 billion—possibly by the end of the weekend—and the first X-Men title to do so, believe it or not. That’s the main issue as expectations climb for Deadpool & Wolverine: the hype should be tempered by the fact that this is an over-performing X-Men movie but a “par-for-the-course” MCU movie… or at least this used to be status quo. Spider-Man: No Way Home is the only post-COVID title in the franchise to make over $1 billion. The main issue for Marvel Studios is Deadpool feels more like a unique outlier than a signal of a return to form for the brand, as it relies mostly on IP elements nurtured outside the MCU by Fox.
2. It Ends With Us
Sony Pictures | NEW
Weekend Range: $45 – $55M
The Boxoffice Company’s Showtimes Dashboard Marketshare: 16%
Pros
With over 25 million books sold in the U.S. alone, author/TikTok sensation Colleen Hoover is driving huge pre-sales for the adaptation of her 2016 debut novel It Ends With Us. Female-targeted movies like Anyone But You ($63.4M) and Challengers ($50.1M) have been having a moment in 2024. A romantic drama starring Blake Lively as a woman trapped in a cycle of spousal abuse is the kind of hot-button film that could land an underserved audience awash in male-oriented action movies and kiddie flicks. The added publicity of Lively opening in a film against husband Ryan Reynolds’ Deadpool & Wolverine (in which she also has a cameo) only helps drive publicity.
Cons
As a leading lady, Lively has had modest hits, including The Age of Adaline ($42.6M), The Shallows ($55.1M), and A Simple Favor ($53.5M), but isn’t exactly a powerhouse. The fact that she has yet to headline a movie since the 2020 dud The Rhythm Section makes the case that author Hoover—not Lively—is driving business for this one. TV star Justin Baldoni both co-stars as the offending partner and directs after turning the 2019 cystic fibrosis drama Five Feet Apart into a modest hit weepie… but the material for this new one still feels like a Lifetime movie writ large. Rotten Tomatoes aggregate currently stands at 54%, which could ding It Ends With Us for ticket buyers on the fence.
3. Twisters
Universal | Week 4
Weekend Range: $12 – $16M
The Boxoffice Company’s Showtimes Dashboard Marketshare: 9%
Pros
- Despite Deadpool & Wolverine sucking the oxygen out of the room and taking up a big chunk of Premium Large Format theaters, Twisters held strong in its third frame with only a -35% dip while fending off newcomer Trap to maintain the #2 spot. We expect a slight chart tumble to #3 but a less-than-50% drop in frame four as the film crosses the $200M milestone this week and likely the $300M mark globally. If Twisters ultimately winds up with $350-$400M all-in by the end of its run that will be an impressive feat for a movie with no proven stars and no legacy cast in a nearly three-decade-old non-franchise.
Cons
- Even though Borderlands isn’t coming into the market with high expectations, it could conceivably knock Twisters down to #4 if it over-performs. The fact that Borderlands is also PG-13 means the teenage quadrant could be siphoned off, although its debut could just as easily wind up under-performing beyond what is forecast if word-of-mouth is negative… leaving those tornadoes to claim whatever’s left of the weekend business.
WILDCARD: Borderlands
Lionsgate | NEW
Weekend Range: $8 – $12M
The Boxoffice Company’s Showtimes Dashboard Marketshare: 11%
Pros
- It’s been a while since a very expensive would-be summer tentpole based on a popular IP has ridden into town with more baggage than Borderlands, based on the space western video game series that Gearbox Software has been issuing since 2009. On paper, it sounds ideal, with a stellar cast including Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jack Black, and Jamie Lee Curtis leading a big budget ($100M+ and $30M in P&A) sci-fi comedy romp from offbeat genre filmmaker Eli Roth (Thanksgiving, Hostel)…
Cons
- …then the director was replaced for extensive reshoots helmed by Deadpool‘s Tim Miller, rumors swirled that screenwriter Craig Mazin had his name taken off for the obvious pseudonym of single-credit “Joe Crombie,” the release date was continually pushed back (the film shot in early 2021), and trailers made Borderlands look like an also-ran Guardians of the Galaxy riff complete with ELO needle drops and a colorful motley crew of antiheroes. Avi Arad, the producer who shepherded the initial Marvel age of movies (X-Men, Spider-Man, etc), has had a poor track record of launching cinematic versions of geek IP outside of Marvel with Ghost in the Shell and Uncharted. Borderlands looks like another non-starter for Arad, who will likely take more of the blame since he’s been a punching bag for duds like Morbius and Roth, who were famously taken out of the loop.
- With this cast, production level, and one of the most successful gaming titles ever (over $1 billion in reported revenue), Borderlands should be debuting to bigger numbers but is tracking at Harold and the Purple Crayon-level lows. Not helping matters is the fact that Deadpool & Wolverine is an R-rated smash, while Borderlands has the feel of watered-down PG-13 pulled punches. While reviews haven’t posted yet (rarely a good sign, see last week’s Trap), early social reactions from the premiere are abysmal.
